Navajo Nation, USA, Precipitation Variability from 2002 to 2015
Author: Crystal L. Tulley‐Cordova, Courtenay Strong, Irving P. Brady, Jerome Bekis, and Gabriel J. Bowen,
Due to its semi‐arid climate, the Navajo Nation, situated in the southwestern United States, is sensitive to small changes in precipitation. However, little information on patterns and causes of rainfall variation is available for this sparsely populated region. In order to study stability and variability over time, this study characterized hydroclimatic changes for the Navajo Nation over timescales of months to years based on data from 90 sites from 2002 to 2015. This research will help local water managers identify related precipitation areas within the region, compare Navajo Nation precipitation with climate indices to ascertain larger‐scale atmospheric contributors to precipitation in the Four Corners region, and support future water planning in this understudied region. A vector quantization method, called k‐means clustering, identified five sub‐regions of contrasting precipitation climatology. The regions differed in the timing, magnitude, and relative importance of the winter and summer peaks comprising the bimodal precipitation regime of the area. Correlation examination of spatial and temporal trends of precipitation variability with three climate indices revealed strong winter precipitation relationships to the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern for all regions; summer precipitation teleconnections were weaker and more variable; however, modest correlations with Pacific Decadal Oscillation were observed. Climate field analysis indicates that cold‐season precipitation is enhanced by intensification of the Aleutian Low with a storm trajectory into the southwest United States; warm season precipitation is enhanced by poleward shift of the North American monsoon ridge.
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